The AI data center processor market remains on a steep growth trajectory, but Omdia’s latest forecast signals the first signs of moderation.
Market Outlook: Explosive Growth, But Cooling Ahead
- $123B in GPUs and AI accelerators shipped in 2024
- $207B expected in 2025 (+67% YoY)
- $286B projected by 2030
Between 2022–2024, shipments grew by more than 250%, but the pace is slowing as AI infrastructure spending begins to peak. Omdia projects that by 2026, virtually all incremental data center spending will be AI-driven, before gradually tapering through the decade.
What’s Driving Demand
According to Alexander Harrowell, Principal Analyst for Advanced Computing at Omdia, key demand drivers include:
- Expanding adoption of AI applications across industries
- Democratization of fine-tuning, enabling broader participation in AI development
- Growth of reasoning models that produce large volumes of intermediate tokens
What’s Slowing Growth
- The rise of smaller, specialized models with lower compute needs
- Efficiency improvements across training and inference, including better-curated datasets, improved model architectures, and optimized operations
Vendor Landscape: NVIDIA Leads, But Challengers Emerge
While NVIDIA remains dominant, Omdia highlights growing momentum for alternatives:
- Custom ASICs like Google’s TPUs
- Merchant ASSPs from Huawei (Ascend), Groq, and Cerebras
- AMD Instinct GPUs, gaining ground thanks to significant software ecosystem investments
Comprehensive Forecast Scope
The Omdia report breaks down projections by:
- Processor type: GPUs, AI ASICs & ASSPs, FPGAs, CPUs with integrated AI acceleration
- Market segment & verticals
- Regional demand
- Applications, memory content, compute performance, and power consumption
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